By Kiana Wilburg
CEO, Guyana Energy Conference & Supply Chain Expo
From all indications, it appears that Guyana will clinch the title as the world’s fastest growing economy for the fifth consecutive year, thanks to the oil boom and successful diversification efforts. The latest report by the nation’s Ministry of Finance shows that the country has already secured a jaw-dropping 49.7 percent growth rate at half-year.
While the oil and gas boom continue to be the powerhouse behind this explosive growth, Guyana’s non-oil sectors are stepping up in a big way, posting a solid 12.6 percent increase in non-oil Gross Domestic Product (GDP). This shows that while oil is driving the bulk of the gains, other industries are starting to fire on all cylinders, thereby positioning the country for a more balanced and sustainable economic future.
Here’s a closer examination of Guyana’s key industries, their performances at half-year, and projections for the remainder of 2024.
Agriculture, Forestry, and Fishing
In the first half of 2024, the agriculture, forestry, and fishing sector saw an estimated growth of 8.7 percent. This was primarily driven by increases in rice production, other crops, and fishing, which outweighed declines in the livestock and sugar-growing subsectors.
Rice Growing: Rice growing experienced impressive growth, with production increasing by 17.9 percent. The sector produced 362,030 tonnes of rice in the first half of the year, compared to 302,295 tonnes in the same period of 2023. The performance was driven by favourable weather conditions and improved yields, with the first crop yielding 6.6 tonnes per hectare. As a result, the sector’s growth projection for 2024 has been revised upward to 8.9 percent, reflecting better-than-anticipated outcomes.
Other Crops: The other crops subsector expanded by 8.8 percent in the first half of the year, thanks to increased production of vegetables, root crops, fruits, beans, cereals, and spices. Corn production, in particular, surged by nearly 400 percent. This growth can be attributed to favourable weather and the expansion of shade house cultivation. The subsector is expected to grow by 12.7 percent for the full year.
Livestock: Unfortunately, the livestock subsector declined by 7.8 percent, largely due to contractions in poultry meat and milk production. Poultry meat output fell by 9.5 percent due to the effects of higher temperatures and diseases like Inclusion Body Hepatitis. Milk production also dropped by 4.9 percent as extreme dry conditions affected forage availability. However, production of beef, pork, mutton, and eggs showed significant growth, and with improvements in husbandry practices, the subsector is projected to grow by 6.2 percent by year’s end.
Fishing: The fishing subsector grew by 27.7 percent, driven by increases in fish and shrimp production. Marine fish output grew by 39.1 percent, while shrimp production increased by 1.9 percent. Aquaculture also recorded a massive 70.6 percent growth. With favourable climatic conditions and increased fleet activity, the sector is projected to grow by 16.8 percent for the year.
Forestry: The forestry sector grew by 13.2 percent in the first half of the year, with the production of timber products such as logs and roundwood increasing. Growth in the sector is projected at 3.9 percent for the full year.
Mining and Quarrying
Guyana’s mining and quarrying sector grew by an impressive 64.3 percent, primarily fueled by the oil and gas industry, which alone expanded by 67.1 percent. This growth was supported by increased production in the ExxonMobil-operated Stabroek Block, with daily oil production averaging 624,000 barrels per day (bpd), up from 380,000 bpd in the first half of 2023.
Oil and Gas: By the end of June 2024, total crude oil production stood at 113.5 million barrels, compared to 68.7 million barrels in the same period last year. As a result, the sector’s full-year growth is now projected at 56.4 percent, up from the initial 44.7 percent.
Bauxite Mining: Unfortunately, the bauxite mining subsector contracted by 20 percent, with production hampered by operational challenges. However, expectations are that production will stabilize in the second half of the year, resulting in a projected 41.3 percent growth for 2024.
Gold Mining: The gold mining subsector saw a 10.3 percent decline, with declarations standing at 188,160 ounces. This decline is largely due to reduced declarations from small- and medium-scale producers. However, large-scale producers have been ramping up production, and the subsector is expected to recover slightly, with 2.1 percent growth projected for the year.
Other Mining and Quarrying: This subsector expanded by 45.5 percent, driven by significant growth in sand and stone declarations. The construction boom in the country continues to support this sector, which is expected to grow by 24.7 percent for 2024.
Manufacturing on the rise
Guyana’s manufacturing sector grew by 27.5 percent in the first half of 2024, bolstered by improved performances in rice manufacturing and other manufacturing categories, despite a significant contraction in sugar production.
Rice Manufacturing: This subsector grew by 22.7 percent, supported by the overall expansion in rice production. This strong performance has brightened the sector’s outlook, which is now projected to grow by 14.5 percent in 2024.
Other Manufacturing: This subsector expanded by 33 percent, driven by the production of fabricated metal products, non-metallic products, and plastic products. The growth in construction and oil and gas has contributed to the increased demand for these manufactured goods.
Services and Construction
The services sector grew by 7.3 percent, with key subsectors such as financial and insurance activities, transport, storage, and wholesale and retail trade driving this growth.
Transport and Storage: Increased activity at ports, particularly for land freight, has driven growth in the transport subsector. As construction and retail activity increase, so too will the demand for logistics, ensuring continued growth.
Wholesale and Retail Trade: The wholesale and retail trade subsector expanded by 4.1 percent, reflecting increased consumer and business spending. With overall economic growth, this trend is expected to continue through 2024.
Construction: The construction sector was another major driver of growth, expanding by 43.7 percent in the first half of 2024. This growth was driven by large public and private sector investments, particularly in infrastructure and real estate development. The outlook for construction remains robust, with a projected full-year growth of 27.2 percent.
2024 Outlook
Guyana’s overall economic outlook for the remainder of 2024 remains highly positive, with real GDP growth projected at 42.3 percent. The non-oil economy, although facing challenges in certain sectors, is expected to continue its upward trajectory with 11.8 percent growth.
According to the mid-year report, the country is poised to build on its oil and gas success while fostering diversification across agriculture, manufacturing, mining, and services.
As Guyana navigates this period of rapid economic growth, the focus remains on ensuring that the prosperity generated is shared widely, benefiting all sectors, and creating sustainable long-term development for the nation.